- AUD/USD moves on a downward trajectory as the RBA delivers a dovish rate statement.
- RBA is concerned about the economy slowing down amid persistent inflation risks.
- IMF upgraded China’s GDP to grow by 5.4% in 2023 and 4.6% in 2024.
AUD/USD proceeds downward with the negative bias, extending the losing streak despite the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA) delivering a 25 basis points rate hike on Tuesday. The pair trades lower near 0.6420 during the Asian session on Wednesday, facing downward pressure as Australia’s central bank delivered a dovish rate statement.
The RBA is worried about the Australian economy slowing down, with consumer spending staying subdued amid persistent inflation risks. The central bank seems less certain about the need for more rate hikes and is taking a data-dependent stance. Despite this, there's skepticism about whether upcoming data will trigger additional rate hikes by the RBA.
After maintaining the benchmark interest rate for four consecutive meetings, RBA tightened its policy by increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 4.10% to a 12-year high at 4.35%, as widely expected. This move by the RBAmight be influenced by the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which revealed a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a 5.6% increase.
Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. China's GDP is now projected to grow by 5.4% this year, reflecting a robust post-COVID recovery. This marks an improvement from the IMF's earlier forecast of 5%. Looking ahead to 2024, the IMF anticipates a slightly slower growth rate of 4.6%, still surpassing the 4.2% forecast provided in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published in October. The Australian Dollar (AUD) may find support from this development, given Australia's status as China's largest trading partner.
US Dollar (USD), on the other side, appears to be on a recovery streak for the third consecutive day, as evidenced by the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering higher around 105.50. Despite this, US Treasury yields experienced a decline in the previous session, possibly influenced by an improved risk sentiment. This shift in sentiment could be related to the speculation surrounding the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concluding interest rate hikes, especially after the downbeat Non-Farm Payrolls data released on Friday.
Additionally, the US Fed's dovish stance in November, maintaining interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, has likely influenced investors' expectations. Wednesday will bring insights straight from the source, with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell set to deliver speaking notes at a conference in Washington, DC, hosted by the Division of Research and Statistics.