EUR/USD Forecast: Buyers remain hesitant to bet on a steady rebound

  • EUR/USD lost its bullish momentum after posting gains on Monday.
  • Key technical resistance at 1.0570 for the pair stays intact.
  • US economic docket will feature September Retail Sales data for September.

EUR/USD gained traction and closed in positive territory on Monday as the positive shift seen in risk sentiment made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand. The pair, however, reversed its direction and staged a correction early Tuesday, after testing the 1.0570 resistance. 

Euro price today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.


USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHF
USD
0.14%0.40%0.17%-0.17%0.06%0.23%0.18%
EUR-0.16%
0.25%0.02%-0.34%-0.10%0.08%0.03%
GBP-0.41%-0.28%
-0.23%-0.58%-0.36%-0.19%-0.24%
CAD-0.17%-0.01%0.24%
-0.35%-0.11%0.09%0.03%
AUD0.17%0.29%0.57%0.35%
0.21%0.40%0.34%
JPY-0.06%0.08%0.36%0.13%-0.22%
0.24%0.15%
NZD-0.26%-0.10%0.17%-0.08%-0.42%-0.20%
-0.07%
CHF-0.20%-0.06%0.23%-0.03%-0.34%-0.14%0.07%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

 

Wall Street's main indexes opened higher and posted strong gains on Monday, even though geopolitical tensions remained elevated amid the deepening Israel-Hamas conflict. In the European session on Tuesday, US stock index futures trade flat, pointing to a cautious market stance.

Later in the day, the US Census Bureau will release the Retail Sales data for September. Markets expect sales to rise 0.3%, following the 0.6% growth recorded in August. A bigger-than-forecast increase could help the USD find demand with the initial reaction by highlighting healthy consumer activity. 

Investors will also keep a close eye on the action in the US stock markets. In case major equity indexes manage to build on Monday's gains, the USD could lose its traction even if the US data looks favorable. On the other hand, the USD is likely to outperform its rivals in case safe-haven flows dominate the action in the second half of the day. 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index on the 4-hour chart retreated below 50 after rising above that level on Monday, highlighting a lack of bullish momentum. 

1.0570, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend meet the 50-period and 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), aligns as key resistance. If EUR/USD flips that level into support, 1.0600 (psychological level) could be seen as the next bullish target ahead of 1.0625-1.0630 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

On the downside, first support is located at 1.0500 (static level, psychological level) before 1.0450 (end-point of the downtrend).